Apex Real Estate Services · DRE #01422904 · CCIM-Led
Hemet, CA · (951) 977-3251
Q3 2026 vacancy, rents, absorption, construction and cap rates across all 15 CoStar retail submarkets, from Ontario Ranch to Hemet and the Coachella Valley — and what the numbers mean for owners, investors and tenants.
The Inland Empire retail market report for Q3 2026 shows a daily-needs market on the mend: vacancy eased to 6.0% across roughly 204 million square feet, market asking rent rose 3.1% in a year to $2.29 per square foot per month, and net absorption reached about 1.6 million square feet over 12 months, per Apex’s analysis of CoStar data.
Reviewed by Robert Mendieta Jr., CCIM (DRE #01422904), Associate Broker · Commercial Division, Apex Real Estate Services · Last updated: September 30, 2026
CoStar tracks Inland Empire retail across Riverside and San Bernardino counties as one market of 15 submarkets. The figures below are Apex’s analysis of CoStar’s Q3 2026 Inland Empire Retail Market and Retail Capital Markets reports; Apex’s research library is on the market reports page.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Inventory | 204.0M SF | 15 CoStar submarkets |
| Vacancy | 6.0% | Down 0.5 points year over year |
| Availability | 6.6% | 13.6M SF available |
| Market asking rent | $2.29/SF/mo | +3.1% over 12 months |
| Net absorption | +585,569 SF | Q3 2026; 1.6M SF over 12 months |
| Deliveries | 182,431 SF | Q3 2026; 845K SF over 12 months |
| Under construction | 1,079,890 SF | 74.1% pre-leased |
| 12-mo sales volume | $2.5B | 677 transactions |
| Market cap rate | 6.5% | 12-mo average transaction cap rate: 6.1% |
| Market sale price | $289/SF | +1.4% year over year |
Source: CoStar Inland Empire Retail Market and Retail Capital Markets reports, Q3 2026 (dated September 30, 2026). Rent is CoStar’s market asking rent per SF per month, all retail types. Sales volume and count are from CoStar’s 12-month sales table (the report’s headline summary shows $2.4B). Cap rate is CoStar’s market cap rate, not a transaction average.
Retail performance splits sharply by submarket. The market’s largest population centers sit in its southwest, along the I-15 and I-10 corridors, and CoStar notes that submarkets tied to stronger residential growth continue to outperform. The Q3 2026 table bears it out: South Riverside, the Airport Area and Riverside all post vacancy under 5%, while Upland/Montclair sits at 10.0%.
| Submarket | Inventory | Vacancy | Asking Rent / SF / Mo | 12-Mo Net Absorption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airport Area | 27.3M SF | 4.1% | $2.55 | +33,796 SF |
| Beaumont/Hemet | 12.0M SF | 6.5% | $1.88 | +26,922 SF |
| Chino/Chino Hills | 7.5M SF | 6.1% | $3.03 | +313,722 SF |
| Coachella Valley | 27.1M SF | 8.2% | $2.25 | -44,409 SF |
| Corona/Eastvale | 11.6M SF | 5.4% | $2.74 | +130,651 SF |
| Mojave River Valley | 18.9M SF | 6.2% | $1.73 | +304,164 SF |
| Moreno Valley/Perris | 13.5M SF | 6.0% | $2.29 | +277,935 SF |
| Redlands/Loma Linda | 10.6M SF | 6.5% | $2.31 | -6,155 SF |
| Riverside | 17.1M SF | 4.9% | $2.40 | +240,852 SF |
| Riverside Outlying | 1.0M SF | 2.3% | $1.66 | +50,310 SF |
| San Bernardino | 21.7M SF | 6.7% | $1.70 | +94,273 SF |
| San Bernardino Outlying | 0.5M SF | 17.8% | $1.55 | -21,510 SF |
| South Riverside | 22.7M SF | 3.9% | $2.67 | +213,213 SF |
| Twentynine Palms | 2.9M SF | 6.3% | $1.51 | +85,639 SF |
| Upland/Montclair | 9.6M SF | 10.0% | $2.72 | -66,116 SF |
| Inland Empire market | 204.0M SF | 6.0% | $2.29 | +1.6M SF |
Source: Apex’s analysis of the CoStar Inland Empire Retail Market report, Q3 2026, submarket inventory, rent and vacancy-and-absorption tables; inventory rounded to the nearest 0.1 million SF. CoStar submarkets are not city limits: CoStar notes, for example, that Riverside’s Mission Grove Plaza sits just across the boundary in its Moreno Valley/Perris submarket.
The largest retail submarket, at 27.3 million SF and 4.1% vacancy, led all 15 in 12-month sales volume, $701.8 million, after Victoria Gardens — the 644,000-SF open-air lifestyle center in Rancho Cucamonga — traded for $531 million ($824/SF) in the first quarter of 2026, per CoStar. For a broader look at Fontana commercial real estate, see our market guide.
Historically one of the region’s tightest retail submarkets, per CoStar, Riverside sits at 4.9% vacancy, with availability easing to 5.8% after a 10-year high. It has the largest pipeline, 399,000 SF, including the 117,300 SF Van Buren Marketplace, where Vallarta Supermarkets signed for 52,000 SF.
Vacancy of 3.9% is the lowest of any submarket except the small Riverside Outlying area, the $2.67 asking rent grew 3.9%, and the 199,000 SF pipeline is 97.4% pre-leased. A 40,000 SF lease at Murrieta Plaza in the second quarter of 2026 ranked among the Inland Empire’s largest retail leases of the past 12 months (CoStar, Q3 2026). For a broader look at Temecula commercial real estate, see our market guide.
Vacancy is 6.5% against a five-year average of 6.1%, neighborhood-center vacancy is 9.4%, and the $1.88 asking rent grew 2.0%, behind the market’s 3.1%. Beaumont/Hemet also carries the highest market cap rate of the 15 submarkets, 7.0%, at $238 per SF against $289 market-wide (CoStar, Q3 2026).
Elsewhere, Chino/Chino Hills leads on price and momentum, with the highest asking rent, the fastest rent growth (4.8%) and the most absorption. The Mojave River Valley — Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley and Barstow — ranked second in absorption, helped by backfills of former 99 Cents Only stores, San Bernardino has the slowest rent growth of the 15 (+1.5%), and the Coachella Valley, hit by anchor closures from bankrupt national retailers, still logged the most sales of any submarket (92); see the Coachella Valley commercial real estate hub (CoStar, Q3 2026).
Inland Empire retail vacancy climbed to 6.5% after the 2024–25 wave of retailer closures — Big Lots, 99 Cents Only, Rite Aid and Joann among them — before easing to 6.0% in Q3 2026, per CoStar. Bankruptcies have slowed and closed stores are being backfilled; other large move-ins include Curacao’s 105,000 SF store at Chino Town Square, and Target, Walmart, Funbox, Grocery Outlet and Planet Fitness moved into newly delivered space. CoStar has net absorption on track for a fourth consecutive positive quarter.
The recovery is uneven by format. Big boxes are the tightest product: availability among single-tenant buildings over 50,000 SF is back down to 2%, after rising to 3% at the end of 2024. Neighborhood centers — roughly 40% of inventory, well above the national average — have drifted the other way, to 8.6% availability, and malls sit at 10.3%. Leasing volume averages roughly 1 million SF per quarter, about 15% below the prior decade’s pace — steady rather than expansionary — and the Inland Empire still ranks toward the higher end of vacancy among major U.S. retail markets (CoStar, Q3 2026).
What it means: tenants seeking inline shop space in neighborhood centers have choice and room to negotiate, while large-format users should expect competition for the few big boxes that open up. Apex works both sides — tenant representation for occupiers and landlord representation for owners.
Market asking rent for Inland Empire retail is $2.29 per SF per month, up 3.1% over the past year (CoStar, Q3 2026), after gains of approximately 3% in 2024, 4% in 2023 and 5% in 2022. CoStar notes market rents have risen nearly 40% over the past decade and 18% over five years, and with occupancy costs substantially higher than a few years ago, it judges landlords’ ability to push pricing higher as limited. By submarket, Chino/Chino Hills leads at $3.03, while San Bernardino ($1.70), the Mojave River Valley ($1.73) and Beaumont/Hemet ($1.88) sit at the value end among the larger submarkets.
Supply remains disciplined. About 1 million SF delivered in 2025, near the 10-year average of 860,000 SF, and about 1.1 million SF is under construction, 74.1% pre-leased (CoStar, Q3 2026). Building tracks housing growth: The Ranch at Model Colony, at the entrance to Ontario Ranch, has pre-leased space to Burlington, Five Below, Hobby Lobby and Planet Fitness. CoStar forecasts inventory growth of about 0.2% a year from 2027 through 2030 and expects supply and demand to stay broadly balanced.
What it means: CoStar flags meaningful rent spreads for long-term tenants nearing lease expiration, so tenants renewing older leases should budget for a step up to market. Retail space is commonly quoted triple-net, so model taxes, insurance and common-area costs on top of base rent — see the CAM charges guide and the gross vs. net lease comparison — and browse current properties for lease.
Capital has come back to Inland Empire retail. Investors closed 677 sales totaling $2.5 billion over the past 12 months at a 6.1% average transaction cap rate; CoStar’s market cap rate is 6.5%, and market pricing is $289 per SF, up 1.4% year over year (CoStar, Q3 2026). Sales volume reached $900 million in the first quarter of 2026, near the market’s historical peak, and nearly $400 million more in the second. REITs and institutional investors accounted for nearly 20% of acquisition volume over the past three years and users about 10%, both in line with historical norms.
Pricing has adjusted: average cap rates expanded by more than 100 basis points as capital costs rose, most recent deals closed between the low-5% and mid-6% range, and Inland Empire cap rates remain materially higher than those in Southern California’s coastal markets, per CoStar. By submarket, Beaumont/Hemet carries the highest market cap rate (7.0%) and Redlands/Loma Linda the lowest (6.3%).
What it means: benchmark a sale against the right tier — single-tenant pad, grocery-anchored center or unanchored strip — not the market average. A free property valuation shows where your asset prices today; how to calculate a cap rate covers the math; and 1031 exchange advisory and the sale-leaseback guide cover the two most common exit structures.
Neighborhood centers are the backbone of Inland Empire retail real estate: 80.1 million SF at 7.8% vacancy and a $2.29 asking rent, plus 15.8 million SF of strip centers at 5.3% vacancy and $2.03 (CoStar, Q3 2026). CoStar calls demand for anchor and shop space in these centers relatively healthy, supported by household growth and consumer spending. In unanchored strips, underwrite tenant rollover and expense recovery carefully; Apex’s commercial lease types guide is a good primer.
Grocers drive the daily trips that keep shop space leased, and new projects lean on them: a specialty grocer will anchor The Ranch at Model Colony, and Vallarta Supermarkets signed for 52,000 SF at Van Buren Marketplace. Since 2024, neighborhood center cap rates have averaged slightly above 6%, with pricing near $250 per SF; in January 2026, Phillips Edison bought The Village at Indian Wells — 105,000 SF, Sprouts-anchored, 79% leased — for $30.5 million ($295/SF) at a 6.25% cap rate (CoStar, Q3 2026).
General retail — 73.1 million SF, many of them freestanding buildings — is the tightest format, at 3.7% vacancy. High-quality single-tenant net-leased assets trade at tighter yields: an 862-SF Dutch Bros pad in La Quinta, leased into 2035, sold for $2.6 million at a 4.7% cap rate in June 2026, and a 1,100-SF El Pollo Loco drive-through in Corona sold for $3 million at 4.5% in May 2026 (CoStar, Q3 2026). For national context, CoStar’s Single-Tenant Net Lease Retail National Report (Q1 2026 edition) put the trailing 12-month median net-lease cap rate at 6.4%. New to the structure? Start with Apex’s NNN lease guide.
Power centers total 19.6 million SF at 5.0% vacancy and the second-highest format rent, $2.87, while malls (11.4 million SF) carry the highest vacancy of any format, 11.7%, and CoStar cites ongoing challenges at certain enclosed malls (CoStar, Q3 2026). For users who need a large-format box below big-box scale, Apex’s own listing at 2255 E Florida Ave in Hemet offers a ±15,000 SF junior-anchor bay on the Florida Avenue (SR-74) corridor at $0.85/SF/mo NNN.
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Industrial sites, outdoor-storage yards, retail pads and the entitlement questions that decide what a parcel is worth.
The desert hub: Highway 111 retail, small-bay industrial, medical office and land from Palm Springs to Indio.
Robert Mendieta Jr., CCIM (DRE #01422904) brings institutional-grade investment analysis — cap-rate math, rent comparables, co-tenancy and lease-term review — to every retail assignment. Here is what the CCIM designation means.
From Ontario Ranch and Chino to the Hemet–San Jacinto Valley and the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire retail is covered from one Hemet office, with no hand-offs.
Acquisition, disposition, leasing, and landlord and tenant representation for neighborhood and strip centers, grocery-anchored centers, pads and single-tenant net-lease assets, backed by quarterly research built on CoStar data.
You work directly with the broker — Robert Mendieta Jr., CCIM — from first consultation through closing. Joseph Lombera, Commercial Agent + CMO (DRE #01971957), supports marketing and deal flow.
Per Apex’s analysis of CoStar’s Q3 2026 data, Inland Empire retail vacancy eased to 6.0%, market asking rent rose 3.1% in a year to $2.29 per SF per month, and 12-month net absorption reached about 1.6 million SF. About 1.1 million SF is under construction, 74.1% pre-leased, and 677 sales worth $2.5 billion closed at an average 6.1% cap rate, against CoStar’s 6.5% market cap rate: a daily-needs market recovering from the 2024–25 store-closure wave.
Inland Empire retail vacancy was 6.0% in Q3 2026, down 0.5 points over 12 months, with availability at 6.6%, per CoStar. General retail is tightest at 3.7%, followed by power centers at 5.0%, strip centers at 5.3%, neighborhood centers at 7.8% and malls at 11.7%. By submarket, South Riverside is lowest among the larger submarkets at 3.9% (only the small Riverside Outlying area, at 2.3%, is lower), while Upland/Montclair runs 10.0%, second only to the small San Bernardino Outlying area at 17.8%. CoStar still places the market toward the higher end of vacancy among major U.S. retail markets.
CoStar’s Q3 2026 market asking rent for Inland Empire retail averages $2.29 per SF per month, up 3.1% year over year. Chino/Chino Hills is highest at $3.03 and Corona/Eastvale next at $2.74, while San Bernardino ($1.70), the Mojave River Valley ($1.73) and Beaumont/Hemet ($1.88) sit at the value end among the larger submarkets. Retail space is commonly quoted triple-net, so taxes, insurance and common-area costs come on top of base rent. Apex prepares submarket lease comparables as part of a free consultation.
CoStar’s Q3 2026 market cap rate for Inland Empire retail is 6.5%, and sales over the past 12 months averaged a 6.1% cap rate. Average cap rates have expanded by more than 100 basis points as capital costs rose, with most recent deals between the low-5% and mid-6% range. Neighborhood centers have averaged slightly above 6% since 2024, while high-quality single-tenant pads trade tighter, with recent examples at 4.5% and 4.7%. By submarket, Beaumont/Hemet is highest at 7.0% and Redlands/Loma Linda lowest at 6.3%.
Over the past 12 months, Chino/Chino Hills led the Inland Empire in net absorption at +313,722 SF and in rent growth at 4.8%, helped by Curacao’s 105,000-SF store at Chino Town Square, per CoStar’s Q3 2026 data. The Mojave River Valley (+304,164 SF), Moreno Valley/Perris (+277,935 SF), Riverside (+240,852 SF) and South Riverside (+213,213 SF) followed. CoStar notes that submarkets tied to stronger residential growth continue to outperform; Upland/Montclair (-66,116 SF) and the Coachella Valley (-44,409 SF) were weakest.
About 1.1 million SF of retail was under construction in Q3 2026, 74.1% pre-leased, after roughly 1 million SF delivered in 2025, per CoStar. Building follows housing: the Riverside submarket leads with 399,000 SF, including the 117,300 SF Van Buren Marketplace, and The Ranch at Model Colony (206,043 SF) is rising at the entrance to Ontario Ranch. Redlands/Loma Linda has no retail under construction, and CoStar forecasts inventory growth of about 0.2% a year from 2027 through 2030.
Start with a free consultation: call Robert Mendieta Jr., CCIM at (951) 977-3251, email robert@apex-res.com, or use the form on this page. Owners get submarket lease and sale comparables from CoStar and a broker opinion of value or a leasing plan. Tenants should bring the requirement: size, frontage, parking, co-tenancy, timing and budget. Buyers and exchangers should bring the constraint, such as a 1031 deadline. Apex works the region from 3750 E. Florida Ave Suite A, Hemet, CA 92544.
Own a neighborhood center, a strip, a single-tenant pad or a second-generation box — or need space for your next location? Start with a data-first conversation: submarket comps, CoStar figures, and a straight read on value and rent. No call center, no hand-offs.
Apex Real Estate Services · 3750 E. Florida Ave Suite A, Hemet, CA 92544 · DRE #01422904
Apex Real Estate Services · Robert Mendieta Jr., CCIM, Associate Broker · Commercial Division, DRE #01422904 · 3750 E. Florida Ave Suite A, Hemet, CA 92544 · (951) 977-3251 · Joseph Lombera, Commercial Agent + CMO, DRE #01971957. Market data is Apex’s analysis of CoStar’s Inland Empire retail market, capital markets and submarket reports (Q3 2026, reports dated September 30, 2026), with national net-lease context from CoStar’s Single-Tenant Net Lease Retail National Report (Q1 2026 edition); terms for 2255 E Florida Ave are from Apex’s own listing. Figures describe CoStar’s market or submarket definitions, which are not city limits, as of the periods noted, are subject to change and should be independently verified. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Dated September 30, 2026.
